Florida is famous for its oranges, and Polk County leads the state in citrus production. However, in 2023, Polk County saw the highest population growth in the U.S., reducing the land available for citrus farming.
This puts more pressure on Florida’s citrus growers, who are already struggling with tough conditions.
The issue goes beyond Polk County. A mix of population growth, severe weather, and citrus greening disease has hit Florida’s orange industry hard.
Many citrus farmers are being forced to shut down operations and sell off groves that have been in their families for generations. This trend could have a direct impact on consumers.
A Tough Situation for Citrus Growers
Citrus greening disease, or Huanglongbing (HLB), has been devastating Florida’s orange crops since it was first discovered in 2005.
The disease has caused a 75% drop in citrus production and more than doubled production costs.
Florida’s citrus industry was already struggling when Hurricane Irma struck in 2017. After that, a major freeze and more hurricanes made things worse. A damaged tree can take up to three years to recover after a storm.
Over the past 20 years, Florida’s orange production has dropped by 90%, and the state’s citrus farming area has shrunk from 832,000 acres to just 275,000.
“This industry is deeply rooted in Florida. Citrus is practically synonymous with the state,” said Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual.
Alico Inc., one of Florida’s largest citrus growers, recently announced plans to wind down its citrus operations across 53,000 acres.
This affects producers like Tropicana, which depend on Alico for orange juice supply. At the same time, U.S. orange juice consumption has been declining for two decades.
Real estate development is adding to the problem. Florida’s population grew by over 467,000 people last year, reaching 23 million. As more homes are built, they take up land that was once used for citrus farming.
There is some hope. Researchers are working on genetically modified trees that could fight the insects responsible for citrus greening. However, it will take at least three years before those trees are ready to be planted.
Will Orange Juice Prices Keep Rising?
The cost of orange juice has been climbing steadily since the pandemic, with prices spiking in 2023 and 2024.
In March 2020, a 12-ounce can of frozen orange juice concentrate cost $2.28. By February 2025, the price had surged to $4.49.
The reason is simple: low supply pushes prices higher. If Florida’s citrus production continues to shrink, consumers could face even higher costs for orange juice and citrus products.
This comes at a difficult time. Grocery prices were up 1.9% year over year as of February 2025, making it harder for many Americans to keep up.
A Swiftly survey from October found that 70% of shoppers were struggling to afford groceries. Northwestern Mutual’s 2025 Planning & Progress Study also reported that 43% of Americans see rising grocery costs as a major financial strain.
If U.S. citrus production keeps falling, the country may have to increase imports. However, ongoing trade tensions and tariffs could push prices even higher.
Job losses are another concern. As of 2021, Florida’s citrus industry contributed $7 billion to the state’s economy and supported over 32,000 jobs.
A continued decline could leave many agricultural workers unemployed, and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to transition to other industries.
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