It might seem early to think about the next Social Security benefits increase, but January 2026 will be here before you know it.
Plus, the Social Security Administration (SSA) usually announces the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in mid-October, which is even closer.
We won’t know the exact percentage of the 2026 Social Security increase until SSA releases its update in about seven months. However, here’s what the next COLA might look like based on current data.
How the Social Security COLA Is Calculated?
Before looking at the current estimate, it helps to understand how the Social Security COLA is calculated.
The goal of the COLA is to ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with inflation. This means the inflation rate plays a key role in determining the adjustment.
While several inflation metrics are used by economists, the SSA relies on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
This index reflects price changes for goods and services like clothing, food, housing, and transportation, and is calculated monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The COLA is based on the percentage increase in the average CPI-W during the third quarter of the year (July to September) compared to the same period the previous year, rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
If there’s no increase in the average CPI-W, Social Security beneficiaries don’t receive an adjustment.
Current COLA Projection
Since it’s not yet the third quarter of 2025, the final 2026 COLA isn’t known.
However, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan group that advocates for seniors, tracks the CPI-W and estimates future COLAs.
Based on the latest CPI-W figures from February, TSCL calculated that the 2026 COLA would be around 2.8%.
This is higher than the 2.5% increase received this year but lower than the 3.9% average increase since 2020.
However, TSCL’s full projection model includes more than just recent CPI-W data. It factors in inflation, interest rates, and unemployment rates.
After considering all these factors, TSCL currently projects that the 2026 COLA will be around 2.2%. This would be lower than the 2025 COLA and below the average increase in recent years.
Why the 2026 COLA Could Be Higher?
Could the actual 2026 COLA be higher than 2.2%? Definitely. It all depends on how inflation trends later in 2025.
Some experts expect inflation to rise. For example, Morgan Stanley recently raised its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.3% to 2.5%.
Goldman Sachs also adjusted its inflation outlook upward, partly because it believes tariffs and immigration policies under President Trump could push prices higher.
On the other hand, inflation could slow down if economic and political conditions shift.
The final COLA for 2026 won’t be confirmed for several more months, but it’s worth keeping an eye on inflation trends as the year progresses.
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