Severe weather is expected to develop this afternoon and evening over Illinois, with some of the storms potentially remaining strong as they move into the southwest corner of Michigan later tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center’s latest update shows the overall risk of severe weather in Michigan, including tornadoes, strong wind gusts, and large hail.
Severe storms are likely to form over central Illinois this afternoon and track northeast into southwest Lower Michigan between 8 p.m. and midnight.
The strength of these storms will depend on how much sunshine Illinois gets this afternoon. More sunshine would make the air more unstable, adding energy to the storms and increasing the chances that they stay strong when they reach Michigan.
The overall severe weather risk is rated at level 3 in the yellow-shaded area, covering southwest Michigan from Benton Harbor to Kalamazoo, Three Rivers, and Coldwater.
Most of the rest of southern Lower Michigan, including Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and Detroit, is under a level 2 risk.
This forecast assumes that the storms will weaken as they move into Michigan later tonight.
There’s also a higher tornado risk over central Illinois and the south side of Chicagoland, marked by a black hatched area where EF2 or stronger tornadoes could form. The far southwest corner of Michigan has a 5% to 9% chance of seeing a tornado.
Severe wind gusts over 60 mph are most likely in the far southwest corner of Lower Michigan, but isolated strong gusts could still happen across the southern half of the state late this evening.
The chance of large hail is currently low, which is surprising since cooler air aloft usually supports hail formation this time of year.
Radar forecasts show a cluster of severe storms forming in Illinois and holding together as they move into southern Lower Michigan tonight.
The main window for severe weather will be from 8 p.m. to midnight.
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