Trump Set to Break His Social Security Promise – And Why It’s the Right Move?

Race Day Live Social Security is one of the most important programs for Americans. In 2023, it helped 22 million people stay above the poverty line, including 16.3 million seniors aged 65 and older. Many retirees rely on Social Security to pay their bills.

According to Gallup surveys over the last 23 years, 80% to 90% of retirees say Social Security is a key part of their income.

However, this program is facing serious financial problems. To keep it running, the government needs to take action. President Donald Trump has promised to protect Social Security, but one of his biggest promises might have to be broken.

Social Security’s Financial Shortfall Exceeds $23 Trillion

Every year, the Social Security Board of Trustees releases a report about the program’s financial health. This report explains how much money Social Security collects and how much it spends.

The 2024 report showed that Social Security is in big trouble. Over the next 75 years, the program is expected to spend $23.2 trillion more than it will collect. This means Social Security will not have enough money to continue paying full benefits.

Even worse, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays benefits to retirees and survivors, may run out of money by 2033. If that happens, Social Security payments could be cut by up to 21% to keep the program running.

Why Social Security Is Struggling?

Some people believe that Congress mismanaged Social Security money or that undocumented immigrants are getting benefits, but these are myths. The real reason Social Security is struggling is due to major demographic changes.

The U.S. birth rate is lower than before, meaning fewer workers are paying into Social Security.
Income inequality is rising, affecting how much tax money is collected.
Legal immigration into the U.S. has slowed, reducing the number of new workers contributing to Social Security.

These factors have put Social Security in a difficult position, making reforms necessary.

Trump’s Social Security Promise: No Taxes on Benefits

Most presidents avoid making big promises about Social Security because any change can upset some people. However, in July, Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security.”

This idea is popular with many Americans. Currently, Social Security benefits can be taxed if a retiree’s income is above certain levels.

This tax was introduced in 1983 to help keep the program running. At first, only about 10% of seniors had to pay taxes on their benefits, but over time, as wages increased, more retirees were affected.

Today, around half of all retirees pay some taxes on their Social Security benefits. If Trump follows through on his promise, it could mean more money for retirees—but it would also hurt Social Security’s financial future.

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Why Trump Might Break His Promise?

Eliminating Social Security taxes sounds great, but it would make the program’s financial situation even worse. Social Security gets its money from three main sources:

A 12.4% payroll tax on wages (this makes up about 91% of Social Security’s income).
Interest earned on its reserves.
Taxes on Social Security benefits.

Over the next 10 years, taxing benefits is expected to bring in $943.9 billion. If Trump removes this tax, Social Security would lose nearly a trillion dollars, making the funding gap even bigger. This could cause benefits to be cut sooner and by a larger amount.

There’s also a political problem. To change Social Security law, Trump would need 60 votes in the Senate. No party has had that many votes since 1979, making it nearly impossible for this change to happen. Even members of Trump’s party may not support it.

Breaking His Promise Might Be the Right Move

While many retirees would love to stop paying taxes on their benefits, doing so would put Social Security in an even deeper financial hole. It would make future benefit cuts more likely and could hurt younger generations who are paying into the system now.

The reality is, that for Social Security to survive, tough choices must be made. Trump may have to break his promise to keep the program from collapsing. In the long run, keeping Social Security funded is more important than making a popular but risky change.

It’s just a matter of time before Trump has to walk back his promise—and it might be the right decision.

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