Texas has been a haven for Republicans for almost 30 years. Indeed, Democrats haven’t won a statewide seat since 1994. But in the last few years, the gap between Republicans and Democrats has been getting smaller.
After beating Wendy Davis by more than 20 percentage points in the 2014 race for governor, Greg Abbott became governor. By the 2022 election for governor, Abbott only had about 11 percentage points of the vote to win.
In presidential races, the difference has been even smaller. Mitt Romney won Texas by about 16 percentage points in 2012. In 2016, Trump won the state by 9 percentage points. In 2020, he won by less than 6 percentage points.
Which counties have the most and Least Red and Blue?
A lot of Democrats have been in big areas like Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso, as well as small towns in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, over the last few elections. In more rural places, like the Panhandle, West Texas, and East Texas, Republicans have had a lot of support.
KXAN used the average margin of win in each county from the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections and the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections to find the reddest and bluest counties.
Based on this average, the most red county in Texas is Roberts County, which is northeast of Amarillo. In the four races that have happened since 2012, Republicans have won by an average of 92.86 percentage points.
Right behind it is King County, which is between Lubbock and Wichita Falls. On average, Republicans win there by 91.11 percentage points.
Eighteen more counties have Republican margins of 80 percentage points or more, and 45 more have Republican margins of 70 percentage points or more. Parker County, which is west of Fort Worth and has more than 100,000 registered voters, is the most Republican-friendly county. Most of the time, GOP nominees win by 66.86 percentage points.
On the other hand, Zavala County, which is southwest of San Antonio, has the biggest average edge for Democrats in elections. Between 2016 and 2022, Democrats won by an average of 42.64 percentage points.
Travis, Presidio, El Paso, and Webb are the other four counties where Democrats have won by an average of more than 30 percentage points. There are more than 100,000 registered voters in Travis County, which is home to Austin. On average, Democrats win by 41.71 percentage points, making it the most Democratic county.
That is, which counties are closest?
It has been won by less than 5 percentage points in four counties since 2016. The tightest race has been in Frio County, which is southwest of San Antonio. Democrats have won there by an average of only 0.18 percentage points.
The next closest is LaSalle County, which is northeast of Laredo and has given Republicans an average margin of 1.59 percentage points. The next closest is Jim Wells County, which is west of Corpus Christi and has given Republicans an average margin of 2.88 percentage points.
Several of the counties that were closest based on averages from 2014 to now have had big changes in their results over the last few rounds.
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.83 percentage points in Hays County, where the 2016 presidential election took place. That’s different from the 2022 race for governor when Beto O’Rourke beat Greg Abbott by 11.02 percentage points.
In what places have things changed the most?
KXAN looked at the results of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 state elections as well as the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections to find out how much each county changed on average between each cycle.
Since 2014, many counties, mostly in South Texas, have moved to the right, while suburban counties have moved to the left.
In Zapata, Kennedy, Foard, Starr, and Duval counties, things have changed the most. Zapata County moved to the right by an average of 10.52 percentage points each election cycle. Kennedy, Foard, Starr, and Duval all moved to the right by an average of more than 9 percentage points each cycle.
Out of the 254 counties in the state, 180 have moved toward the Republicans on average every cycle, while 75 have moved toward the Democrats.
Collin County, which includes Plano and is part of the DFW Metroplex, has changed the most. It has moved to the left by an average of 5.77 percentage points every election cycle. Each cycle, Williamson and Hays counties, which are both near Austin, went to the left by an average of more than 5 percentage points.
Since 2014, Texas has seen an average change of 2.37 percent toward the Democrats in each election term.
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